a few amusing odds and ends this fine morning. i remind our loyal readers that i forecast things for a living, and though i'm not infallible, it's how i put bread on the table, and based on my girth, i'm pretty damn good at it. so listen up!
prediction number 1: john edwards will never be president. serious presidential candidates don't ride bikes. witness the kerry campaign's stunning mediocrity in '04 that was way too bike focused and not enough win_the_%#$*ing_election election focused. they show up in hybrids and jawbone endlessly about how committed they are to green alternatives and then they go somewhere else and talk about something else. haven't the mountain biking excursions on the texas ranch ruined the nexus of cycling and politics? we need a timeout. note: the union makes a wide and deep exception for fenty: mr. mayor is the real deal. he takes his pulls at hains and doesn't sit on and delegate. he leads by example. love and respect to the man on that count. bonus side prediction: re-election for him with 82% of the vote.
prediction number 2: tom boonen will not be busted for drug use this year. now note the careful use of language. not sayin' he didn't take drugs. just sayin' you don't talk shit like this ("Vino is a dirty cheat who they ought to suspend for his lifetime," Boonen told HLN.be. "He is causing immense damage to everyone. There are so many teams in search of a new sponsor. This case will not make it easier.") about your peers unless you are totally certain you won't get busted. unless you are a world class idiot with a blinding ego. this is profesisonal sports so anything is possible. i'd put the not busted at a 70-75% favorite and the world class idiot with a blinding ego collapse at 8:1. that gravy train is too thick and delicious to risk ruining over an off the cuff remark delivered to a journalist from your massage table.
prediciton number 3: the economics of pro cycling are not going to change, they have changed. from the same interview with boonen in the link above, here he is throwing vino under a bus because his own financial future is at stake: "I am a victim of people such as Vinokourov, because I am in the same circus they are. I can only hope that I will be believed when I say that I don't have anything to do with doping. I underwent five controls before the Tour: four unannounced controls and once after the Belgian championship." translation: vino is a known badness, other cyclists may be bad but we're not sure, but i need to work and you're screwing with my livelihood. this may seem like a vague prediciton but it lays out a general change in tone. now, when a single rider tests positive, the whole team withdraws. aso and societie du tour de france pressure uci as opposed ot the other way around. fans know the deal and demand removal of the tainted and strongly suspected. look for scarcer sponsorship, more amateur teams in high profile races, follow through on dropping cycling from olympics, restructuring of sponsorships, etc. and check this headline: Predictor-Lotto to sue Vino and Astana. presumably for screwing up the gravy train alluded to above. yes, a sea change is here.
prediciton number 4: comrade peanut emerges as the bright and energetic leader of the racing union, deposing dear leader in a bloodless coup of charisma. tender vittles for all who struggle and strive on two wheels. viva comrade peanut! rally to the banner!
-posted by scott