the union message takes wing, gathering momentum amongst the urbane and the pastoral.  join those who are on the march for progress.  there is an old adage that when one sees a cresting tsunami of change, there are two sides of the wave you can be on.  think carefully on this.

- - - posted by scott

in my post earlier today, i mentioned that we were doubling down on our efforts to bring people under the banner of the mighty racing union.  the red locomotive is picking up passengers and leaving the station.  time to get with it folks! 

comrade rp and i took advantage of the coolish climactic conditions for a short spin around dc to hains point.  outreach was on the menu for this lunchtime ride. 

do not be deceived by the looks of surprise and indifference.  the message was warmly received.  another glorious victory for the union forces.

on a lighter note, some informal pictures from the start of the ride:

on the more serious side, i'm not sure wtf people were thinking out there.  the last couple laps involved people diving between cars and park service trucks.  a very special wtf goes out to the person in the hpc kit for pointedly not letting a car by that was trying to get out of the way of the riders.  nice work.  like it's not dangerous enough out there...

- - - posted by scott

p.s. i'm not calling out m street racing because their blog is tight.  in fact, i would call it required reading.  but their editorial decision not to post the picture of ken's injury is deplorable.  guys, you have to trust us.  we're secretly totalitarians and that means we know something about information control.  and in this case, you're barking up the wrong tree.  the people have a right to know.  that image wants to be free.  the union insists that this image be made available, preferably in a megapixel format.  it needs no accompanying text and speaks for itself.  do the right thing....

a renewed push for the principles espoused in the manifesto begins today.  hardly a retrenchment, we're broadening communications and outreach activities and redoubling our efforts.  we call on all able bodied men and women, between the ages of 7 and 70, to rally under the racing union banner.  is this war?  yes, but it is asymetric in nature.  the diabolical oligarchicy of big cycling must be overturned.  their primary weapon is the subtle tyranny of the status quo. 

now is the time for all able bodied cyclists to come to the aid of the union.

- - - posted by scott

updated below

>>>-----Original Message-----

>>>From: Ken Abe

>>>Sent: Friday, June 30, 2006 7:43 AM

>>>Subject: Re: D20: NO JAN ULLRICH IN THE TOUR

>>>

>>>Definitely a blow to the image of cycling.

in what way is it a blow to the image of cycling?  i'm not asking this as a rhetorical question. 

There are years and years of history of doping in the peleton.  just this morning, i was getting an ebay auction together for an old copy of paris match with a great picture of louison bobet on the cover and photos inside of a rider who dies while riding the tour and the controvery surrounding the "race doctor" and the issues of "dopage".  the date is julliet, 1955.

and not much has changed.  recent studies have shown that among professional sports, cycling has the highest positive rates.  look at the festina affair.  read the books of the people who were really involved.  look at the raids that the italians have been conducting since 1999.  look at the ferocious coverage of lance in the french press.  look at the sad trajectory that musseuw's career took at the end.  can you count the number of cycling heroes who have served suspensions?  are we still hoping that tyler hamilton will be able to race, like a phoenix rising from the ashes?

seriously man, there's not a lot left to tarnish.  but i think you're looking at it in the wrong context.  you're saying this is a blow to the image of cycling.  it's only a blow to the image of cycling if you held these guys out as some sort of gods: classic, heroic ideals of sport.  their bodies are temples.  the competition is fair and well won.  that shit may have played back when you won a wreath of olive branches. 

in my limited travels to other countries, i've never seen the kind of puritanical zeal against doping that we seem to have here.  note that i'm not saying doping is good, i'm just saying that cycling in it's current format (a professional sport with sanctioning bodies and sponsors and budgets, salaries and staffs which would make formula 1 and nascar team owners blush) is not some sort of idealized and fair compeititon.  it's been almost two millenia since that was the case for most any sport.  now, cycling is a business.  big business. 

your statement may be true for companies that try to use professional cycling for marketing.  so maybe we should have a moment of silence for the big name sponsors whose stock prices may take a hit and who's quarter over quarter sales may be impacted.  but cycling is so much more than that.  cycling is us racing for fun on weeknights and the weekends.  cycling is spinning along skyline drive.  cycling is taking your kids out on the trail.  cycling is so much more than you're making it out to be.  check with these guys, they know what time it is.

let's be clear that with the notable exception of the recent arrival of fuentes, the larger doping issues don't really matter a whole lot around here.  we'll all still watch tour stages.  we'll all still ride and race our bikes and commute to work.  nothing has really changed that affects us.

update

I had thought everyone pretty much had this in perspective.  i was incorrect.  for that i apologize.

- - - posted by scott

woke up a bit early this morning so I opted for a different route to work.  my plan was to cross chain bridge and take a look at what the river was doing.  there was a sleepy rollout from the undisclosed location.  I rode sort of due east on idylwood.  there i got my first view of some of the damage form the recent storms.

the pictures here don't really do it justice.  there are bowling ball size cavities up under the pavement.  they may be larger but I could not tell.  i don't know if these will lead to sinkholes or crumbling pavement or not.  it doesn't look particluarly good.  i rode on and followed kirby (the back side of pete's hill ride) to chesterbrook and then down to the river.  and the river is impressive.

you can see whole tree trunks turning end over end in the eddy currents and you can feel the power of the water.  it's absolutely amazing.  and not more than 100m to the east is a slightly more elevated area that has flooded but it's completely pastoral.  a huge contrast to what seems like an awfully big angry river.

i spun down to the canal to have a look down there as well. 

the canal is topping out.  it's not really overflowing it's banks but there are some areas you need to be careful on.  if anyone is looking for a change of pace from their normal ride, throw a pair of 28's on your training wheels and take a spin on the path.  it's really beautiful, and the size of the turtles down there will stun you.

- - - posted by scott

(updated below)

i talk a lot about class.  it has different meanings.  you often only know the meaning by the context.  we could say that some people have class and some people don't.  and you would understand that this was different in context from saying that some people are obsessed by the trappings of class or engage in class warfare.  today's topic is cyclists as second class citizens. 

but first, a brief digression.  after witnessing what was probably the stupidest commute, the very most idiotic mass migraiton of people ever into dc today, i don't see how anyone can think the alternative transport isn't a great idea.  i got several emails from people crowing about how easy their ride in was.  and good for them, they earned it.  but for most people, bike commuting appears to be somewhere between sort of zany and downright lunatic behaviour.  in giving some thought to why this happens, and also in pondering a few recent bike thefts, i have come to a conclusion which is that few organizations or employers make commuting easy by offering the basic amenities which are required.

to this end, and to highlight the problem, i offer a contest.  i want to search out the least appealing accomodation for biking to work which exists in washington dc.  i want _photos_ that make it entirely clear to what extent cyclists are second class citizens in the commuting food chain.  you may be creative, but your stuff should be first hand and real.

this will be an anonymous contest, no specific contributor name, location addresses or company names will be used.  our goal is not to call people out but to illustrate the dire state of affairs that exists.  to get this party started right, i offer two photos submitted by a friend.  i cannot describe the exact location without giving it away but i can tell you that these photos were taken after the site was cleaned up.  so you can imagine what it was like beforehand. 

those who are not employed, under-employed or work from the home are still eligible to submit.  they are encouraged to do so.  all one must do is highlight a particularly unwelcome amenity or environment towards cycling.  we won't be too critical about it being in downtown dc.  it is my guess that the winning entry will speak for itself and should be rewarded no matter the situation.  so let's roll with it and see what happens.

the more capitalist-minded among you will no doubt be primarily focused on the prize.  the answer is i am not entirely sure what it is.  our valued comrade aric line won a prime at last week's greenbelt "a" race and it's a capitol hill bikes gift card.  he lives in leesburg, didn't think he could use it, so being the generous guy he is, he stuffed it into my jersey pocked and said give it away.  i don't know the denomination.  in fact, i don't even really know that it's a gift card, but that's what it looks like so that's how i'm describing it. 

i'll take photos off list through email, as i don't believe we allow file uploads in the comments.  if you don't know how to get ahold of me, post a brief blurb in comments and i'll drop you a line directly.  i will take links to stuff you find on the web but i'd understandably prefer that you actually visit the site yourself.  - - - posted by scott

entries posted below as they are received

entry number 2: June 27th, morning.  i like the flagging tape here.  it reminds me of the mabra cross courses.  i also like the fact that if you rack on the front, your bike sticks way out onto the side walk and if you rack int he back, your going directly into a bush.  sweet.

tsk tsk.  i expect more from certain people.  i know most of you saw this email.  you know what the problem here is?  we're in a pre-revolutionary phase.  that means that the evil forces of the bourgeoisie hold sway.  you think you're going to sell some bike stuff to people with links to performance?  c'mon, that shit is for commuters and freds.  be serious.  you want to sell some time trial stuff to big time serious d20 racers?  you need links to bobby julich's diary or john cobb's personal bike fitting labratory.  performance?  that's for people who need to go to a bike shop to have a flat tire fixed. 

you need to make it sound exotic.  you could have linked here where the price is in pounds.  it would have seemed exotic but the whole bargains thing puts people off their game.  and note the higher u.s. dollar equivalent would have added cache.  this is slightly better.  no mention of bargain, and we all know how freaky the british are about tt'ing.  so this link probably would have been superior.  but still not good.

what you were probably looking for was this.  the french makes the description totally un-intelligible.  and 174.000 euros is just about right for you to insist that you cannot take less than $150 u.s. as this is an exotic import that will literally pull your bike forward once it is installed.  you'll hardly need to pedal with these babies on the front of your rig.

now once the revolution occurs, there will only be one source for this kind of thing.  but I'll cover that in a subsequent post.  - - - by scott

apologies for the lack of timely posts.  we're all pretty slammed right now.  free time is a valuable commodity and i make no apologies for choosing to spend the little time i have doing other stuff. 

i don't know how many of you got socked by that thunderstorm last night.  it was hard to tell if my son or my cat was more freaked out.  my neighborhood looked like beirut this morning.  lots of people had elected not to go to work to deal with significant downed tree limbs.  i didn't get to leave the house until around 8:30.  the wo&d was not as bad as i thought it would be but there were significant amounts of storm detritus on the trail.  people riding in the nova area will want to speciifcally look out for the section of path under i-66 where the custis trail begins from the wo&d.  it's relatively dark underneath there and you can't see the stuff coming that must have washed in off of i-66.  also the tail end of banneker park by the east falls church metro had what looked like a mud-slide.  cuidado.

greenbelt this past wednesday was something.  it just felt painfully fast at points.  i can only hope that a number of people are peaking for nationals because if people are still building towards a fitness crescendo, my season is basically over.  there's always cross.  on a more positive note, it was great to see comrade joe move up form the c race to the b race and ride strong.  he had some good observations after the race and i think he's showing his potential.  also on a positive note, it was really nice to ride out there and share a metro ride home with rudy v., one of the nicest guys around. - - - posted by scott

in a previous post, i discussed some of the issues and problems with assessing risk in a formal sense.  i also threw out some zany ideas.  jim over at unholy roleur (a blog i happen to like by the way) has a sharp eye and captured one of the more interesting ones.

>>>Scott writes:
>>>maybe the same concept would be applicable to racers themselves using the portable car insurance model

That's a pretty neat idea, but you'd have to be careful with how narrowly you assess risk.  At some point, insurance stops being insurance, and simply becomes a mandatory savings fund in anticipation of accidents.  It sort of defeats the purpose of insurance to do that.  And while the actions of the individual are paramount in achieving safety, there wouldn't be such a thing as a 100 rider field without the other 99 riders.  It's not a case for strict enterprise liability, but *all riders in a race* bear a little responsibility for the safety of others, and I think that in this case insurance reflects it.  That said I wouldn't object to having a couple tiers, but making it more along the lines of "perfect record" and "everybody else."  I haven't been at it long but it appears to me there are only two types of racers - those who've crashed, and those who haven't *yet*.

just past hyattsville, i like to jump up into riverdale.  it's family friendly...

and must be a very affluent area.  this is a typical residence in riverdale.  i wasn't allowed to get much closer.

i like to take the stream valley park from riverdale, along the northeast branh of the anacostia up to good luck.  it's a nice route.  this is often where you bump into others who are headed to greenbelt.  this past week i saw scott from route 1 velo and a yellow blur that passed me int he park.  it's a good thing my camera was set to an exceedingly fast shutter speed.  only later did i recognize the friendly face behind the blur.

after the race, i was entirely dependent on the kindness of strangers.  eric marshall very generously offered to ride mehome from greenbelt which is saying something because he's not exactly close to me.  he's good people.  all the more so because i think i got post-race nutella all over the inside of his volvo.

- - - posted by scott

** for anyone who is interested in following up on this, i'd suggest starting with todd sowl at USAC who is the chief financial officer.  he answers his phone and provides useful information.  he was recently very helpful in clarifying some issues related to the coverage provisions and requirements for the auto and moto insurance that mabra requires promoters to carry.

i have always thought that our comrade roy had a gift for sensing the gestalt that's out there.  that why when he sent me this message with a time date stamp of midnight on friday:

It's amazing what a motivated person can do starting at about 10:30 p.m (the slowest steps were stripping off the derailleurs and bar-end shifters and messing around with the camera).  I'm off into the night to try it out - cross your fingers that I don't slay myself.

and this photo:

i pretty much anticipated that something like this article would arrive before too long.  roy clearly has a gift like the seers of old.  people ask me to describe it from time to time.  our whole movement is, to a large extent, surfing the currents of popular opinions and beliefs, and be sure to check the featured article on wikipedia this morning for verification of my claim.  roy just seems to be a step ahead of the rest of us.  - - - posted by scott

incidentally, jay uhlfelder is my new best friend.  this post was brilliant and i would have thought he was typing with one hand and holding the manifesto in the other.  this post beuatifully captures much of the message we seek to propogate. 

oh, except for the math in this post.  yeah, that's not so good. 

For the sake of argument, let's assume an average field size of 50 per race, and an average of one crash per race with two riders seriously affected.

this reminds me of an old anecdote.  One day a farmer called on a mathematician, a physicist, and an engineer to fence off the largest possible area with the least amount of fence. The mathematician arranged the fence in a circle and proclaimed he had the most efficient design. The physicist made a long straight line and proclaimed, "We can assume the length is infinite...." and pointed out that fencing off half the earth was certainly more efficient. The engineer just laughed at them. He built a tiny fence around himself and said, "I declare myself on the outside!" 

you need to be careful with those simplifying assumptions

Under those assumptions, which I suspect are on the conservative side, the average rider's odds of being in a crash in each race are 1 in 25--not terrible but, given the possible severity of the consequences (pain, cost in dollars, opportunity costs), not great either.

i would suggest an alternative approach here.  if people are serious about modeling risk and return, they should start with actual accident statistics.  and even that is an issue as not all accidents end up being reported to the CR at the venue.  I think the estimate provided here is really high based on the percent of accident reports I have seen.  I would suspect the actual risk is somewhat closer to 1 incident / 200 racers / event as a long term average.  it's also complicated by the fact that one incident in one field can take down a large number of riders and the rest of the races can be accident free so you need to define whether you are talking about general population level risk or field specific risk.  you could also talk about risk at specific venues, specific types of racing (i.e. track vs. criterium vs. circuit vs. road), during specific times fo the year, under specific weather conditions, etc., etc., ad nauseum. 

comanies like geico have established brilliant business models by accurately estimating the relative risk certain people present and then only doing business with very low risk clients.  drivers have to have insurance.  what if you could offer really low rates to people who had spectacularly low risk?  there's a huge potential return.  one almost has to wonder why usac hasn't followed a similar type of experience rating in their insurance system: charging higher rates to venues that produce more frequent accidents and incidents and lower rates to those that consistently are accident free.  promoters could conceivably _earn_ lower insurance costs by demonstrating a history of incident free racing.  maybe the same concept would be applicable to racers themselves using the portable car insurance model.

this idea is hardly ready for prime time but you get the basic concept: it involves accurately assessing risk.  here's a classic example of people mis-understanding the concept.  let's say that you're looking at people who are driving on icy roads.  you find, after carefully analyzing your data, that if someone is driving 30mph on an icy road, they have a 22% higher number of accidents per minute on the road.  does it not then stand to reason that if you doubled your speed, you would be on the roads for half as long, allowing yourself only half as much time to have an accident, thereby making yourself twice as safe?  sure it does, and most of us practice this sound philosophy every day.  it's really easy to take general data and mis-apply it to a situation.

What's more, over time those risks really add up. If he or she races 25 times in a year, that average racer can expect to crash once each year. Over several years of bicycle racing, that rider's chances of suffering a serious injury and financial costs start to look pretty good (or bad, really).

this is gamblers fallacy.  if there's a fixed probability that you will have an accident, each application is theoretically independent and unique.**  if (and i'm just using the argument provided here) there truly is a 1 in 25 chance of crashing, that doesn't mean that if they do 25 races they can likely expect a crash.  it means that they will do 25 races, each with a 1 in 25 chance of crashing.  if they have a crash in a race on saturday, they'll go right back out and have a 1 in 25 chance of crashing again on sunday.  no argument over the potential long term and aggregate costs of crashing.

The math would be very different if most of the local races were challenging road courses, where the fields tend to stretch and split and so the risk of crashes falls.

i'm not sure that there is valid data to back this assertion up.  in statistics, we sometimes joke about the o-test, where o stands for obvious.  it relies on conventional wisdom and simple observation.  but it's subjective and based on perception (which is the source of the irony because it's a statistical test but i'm sure you all got that and didnt' find it amusing).  personally, i would be likely to say that crashes happen at the end of criteriums when the speed is not high enough to keep people strung out.  but again, i have no data to back this up either, just my own observations.  one could make a similar argument that low average speed keeps attrition low and that's the ultimate cause.  my general point is that many of these are impossible for promoters to control so even if you could definitively say that one thing or another increased the risk, you can't mandate the actions of others (on the fly).  in addition, you always have the option of dropping out if the risk/reward ratio does not appear favorable to you.  it's an option i've been exercising more frequently in the last few weeks.

Unfortunately for MABRA riders, virtually all of the local races are crits, and often on rather technical courses where the risks of crashing are at their highest. Of the few road races on the calendar, one (Poolesville) is a pretty risky endeavor for other reasons, and others often end with field sprints that produce crashes, too (I was in the men's 30/40+ finishing swarm at Walkersville this year, and that was downright ugly).

the finish at walkersville was ugly, but i think that illustrates my point that it's difficult to identify and then quantify all of the factors that present risk.  my commute this morning was also ugly, but it's the same route i ride almost every day.  why was it so much more dangerous this morning?  who knows.  it could likely be described as random chance alone.  which brings me to my final point.  this post contains a totally reasonable request.  if any tt promoters would like help with randomizing systems, drop me a line and i'll hook you up.

I've probably been way too picky in this post so let me reiterate the thing i said at the top.  i like jay's perspective on racing.  i like it a lot.  i like to try to remember that we all have families and jobs and other hobbies to go back to after our rides and races.  that's the important stuff.  you can be passionate about bicycle riding and racing while still keeping it in perspective.  and i do think that if everyone kept it in perspective, there might be less crashes.

- - - posted by scott

** there is an interesting caveat here.  if you support the thesis that some riders are more prone to accidents than others, a different approach is required.  this assumption makes some parts of the risk assessment tricky as you grapple with issues of whether you must move away from population level accident rates because you implicitly acknowledge that there is more variation by racer than by venue or field.  you'd need to construct elaborate systems to evaluate individual risk you present to others and they present to you.